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Monday, June 13

Week In Review: Double Dip Recession, Right?

Recap
A double dip recession? Nobody knows!!!!
Review
Wouldn’t it be nice if we did know? All you have to do is a little research when you hear someone make a prediction (on anything really) to discover that 99.9% of the time most predictors couldn’t be more wrong if they tried!
What To Do
[Reprinted from Best of The Week in Reviews, January 9, 2009]
http://clarkbrothersinvestments.com/market-commentary.html

What to do: What America needs right now is a leader. What America does not need is more negative partisan dogma entrenching us once again on the road to purgatory-not to be confused with the road to provo at Snowbird. First off, nobody knows what 2009 will bring for the US economy. Secondly, as we have always stated, it does not matter because it can not be predicted. The economy, interest rates, and the overall direction of the stock market are as unpredictable as the weather.

Everybody can understand that, right? As if we needed to provide yet another specific example on this topic. As if. Well, we are going to just because it is truly even shocking to me how totally wrong this guy got 2008. We are affectionately speaking of, PhD Jeremy Siegel, who regularly appears all over the media, is an Economics Professor at Wharton, obtained an undergraduate degree in Economics from Columbia, and a PhD from MIT. Could you be more educated? No. We are not picking on Jeremy Siegel the individual; we are picking on his agenda, theories, and predictions. Here were the predictions offered by Prof. Siegel posted Friday, December 14, 2007, 12:00 AM (just in case you would like to read the summary for yourself).

Economic Growth-Predicted 1.5%-2.5% GDP growth in 2008, and that the economy would avoid a recession.

Interest Rates-Predicted rates to go as low as 3.5%; they are effectively at 0%.
Stocks-"I think the stock market will have another winning year in 2008." "And, I believe that financial stocks, which have plummeted 18% so far this year (2007), will outperform the S&P 500 Index next year (2008) as the credit crisis fades."

Politics (just for fun)-Predicted Hillary Clinton would beat Rudy Giuliani.

Oil and Subprime Crisis-Discussed both, but gave no specific predictions. Grossly underestimated the severity of both the current credit crisis, and the high price of oil.

This guy could not have been more wrong in every single area he offered a prediction. This should tell you something. It is not him. It is not his fault. It is just the way it is. In all the years I have been studying the markets I have yet to meet, read, or hear of anyone correctly, consistently, and accurately predicting the economy, interest rates, the stock market, or the weather! Because they are unpredictable they are irrelevant in an investment model. Next week we will give investors specifics on how to profit in the stock market without regard to the economy, interest rates, or the overall direction of the stock market-weather permitting of course - haha. 
Quote of the Week
“Stop predicting and Start investing!” Jason R. Clark
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Clark Brothers Investments
Registered Investment Advisors
18810 E. Whitaker Circle
Aurora, CO 80015
www.clarkbrothersinvestments.com

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